China has started a series of naval and air exercises near the island
In the very near future, we can expect the start of an acute phase of the military conflict between Taiwan and China. The time is right for this. A number of experts come to this conclusion, evaluating the latest actions of Beijing, which announced major military exercises in the Taiwan area. MK asked a military expert to assess the risks.
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Chinese military exercises are underway at sea and in the air. In a statement to the Xinhua news agency, Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the Eastern Theater of Operations, described the maneuvers as a multi-purpose joint alert patrol. Which, of course, is true – such patrols have many goals. One of them, perhaps the main one, is the response to Biden's statements about his readiness to defend the island. China wants to demonstrate to Washington that Taiwan is Chinese territory.
This is how the military expert captain 1st rank in the reserve Vladimir Gundarov assessed the situation around Taiwan for MK:
special operation in Ukraine. Beijing is evaluating the international reaction to the Ukrainian events, trying on itself whether they will be able to cope with similar sanctions pressure if it is applied against their country in the event of a military conflict in Taiwan.
It seems that in the Celestial Empire estimates are made. The strategy has been worked out. Now Beijing is ready to move on to tactics that are clearly traceable to the Russian scenario in Ukraine.
A concentration of troops and forces begins in the Taiwan area. There are various exercises. On our border with Ukraine, as well as in Belarus, if you remember, they were also held at the beginning of the year. I think that later, if the Taiwanese authorities continue to resist, a landing on the island may follow.
Now is the best time for such an operation. Britain is mired in domestic political problems, it is now not up to China. The United States is preparing for the elections, Biden is in trouble with the economy, and there is a lot of trouble with Ukraine.
Thus, in the AUKUS bloc, which was created by these countries against China, including with an estimate of the Taiwan situation, free from all worries remains only Australia. But, I think, she will not want to seriously stand up for Taiwan either.
I may be wrong, but, in my opinion, 2022 will be decisive in the fate of Taiwan.